Northern Star Share Price Analysis: Buy or Sell? (ASX:NST)
If you’ve been watching the ASX gold miners lately, you’ve probably noticed Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) making headlines — and not always for the right reasons. After a stellar run, the share price has pulled back to $19.830 as of the latest trade, while the company grapples with a production guidance cut and shifting analyst sentiment. This article looks at the numbers that matter, from today’s price action to dividend yields and fair value estimates, so you can decide whether NST belongs in your portfolio.
Current Share Price (ASX): $19.830 ·
Daily Change: -$0.479 (-2.36%) ·
Market Capitalization: $28.93B ·
52-Week Range: $15.30 – $22.16 ·
Previous Close: $20.31
Quick snapshot
- Current share price: $19.830 (Simply Wall St (investment research platform))
- FY25 final dividend: 30¢ per share (Northern Star Resources (official results))
- FY26 production guidance revised to 1.6–1.7M oz (Mining.com.au (Australian mining news))
- Whether the price drop is temporary or structural (Simply Wall St)
- Exact fair value — analyst estimates range from $13.56 to $30.96 (Simply Wall St)
- Impact of future gold price moves on NST’s valuation (Simply Wall St)
- Ex-dividend date for FY25 final dividend: 3 September 2025 (Northern Star Resources)
- FY26 first half production update expected February 2026 (Northern Star Resources)
- Next earnings: FY26 first half results (expected Feb 2026)
- Analyst consensus may shift further after production guidance cut
Five facts, one pattern: Northern Star’s fundamentals remain strong on dividends and cash flow, but the recent production guidance cut has widened the gap between bullish and bearish views.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Company Name | Northern Star Resources Limited |
| ASX Ticker | NST |
| Sector | Gold Mining |
| Headquarters | Perth, Australia |
| Listed Since | 2000 |
| Market Capitalization | $28.93B |
| FY25 Dividend per Share | 55.0¢ (semi-annual) |
| FY26 Production Guidance | 1.6–1.7M oz (revised from 1.7–1.85M) |
| Dividend Policy | 20–30% of Cash Earnings payout |
| Share Buy-Back (FY25) | A$300M at A$11.04 avg. |
Is Northern Star a good buy?
What is the analyst consensus on NST?
Analysts are split. According to Simply Wall St (investment research platform), the consensus price target has bounced around — from a low of $13.56 updated upward to $17.06, then to $28.10 and later trimmed from $30.96. That wide range reflects uncertainty around production costs and gold price assumptions. The most recent consensus fair value estimates hover near $15.58 to $28.10, meaning the current $19.83 price sits below many targets but above the most bearish ones.
What is the P/E ratio and earnings growth?
Northern Star’s earnings per share have been rising. FY25 dividends per share increased 37% to 55.0 cents, backed by A$559M in total dividend payments (Northern Star Resources (official results)). The company’s cash earnings payout ratio of 20–30% leaves room for reinvestment, though Simply Wall St warns that dividends are not well covered by free cash flows.
How does Northern Star compare to peers?
Northern Star is one of the largest ASX-listed gold miners by market cap. Its FY25 production was strong enough to deliver record dividends, but the revised FY26 guidance of 1.6–1.7M ounces (Mining.com.au (Australian mining news)) suggests near-term headwinds. Rivals like Newcrest and Evolution Mining face similar cost pressures, but NST’s dividend yield of around 2.91% (Simply Wall St) is competitive among its peer group.
The pattern: analyst uncertainty signals that the market has not yet priced in the full impact of the guidance revision.
Why is the Northern Star share price falling today?
What factors are driving the price drop?
The most recent daily move shows a drop of 2.36% to $19.830. While day-to-day moves are often noise, the context includes the FY26 production guidance reduction from 1.7–1.85M oz to 1.6–1.7M oz (MarketScreener (financial data platform)). Such revisions can spook the market because lower output may mean higher unit costs and reduced margins.
Has the company announced production issues?
Yes. The guidance cut was announced in August 2025 alongside the FY25 results. Northern Star cited operational challenges at certain sites. The company’s own press release (Northern Star Resources (official update)) emphasized that the revised range still represents strong production, but the market tends to penalise downgrades.
“Our underlying operations remain healthy, but we have adjusted our FY26 expectations to reflect a more conservative outlook.”
— Northern Star CEO (paraphrased from FY25 results presentation)
Long-term holders see the guidance cut as a speed bump — Northern Star still returned over A$840M to shareholders in FY25 via dividends and buy-backs. Short-term traders are selling on the uncertainty.
The catch: the speed bump could become a pothole if gold prices weaken further.
What are Northern Star shares worth today?
What is the current share price and trading range?
As of the most recent ASX trade, NST is at $19.830. The day’s range is not explicitly reported in the sources, but the 52-week range of $15.30 to $22.16 (Simply Wall St (investment research platform)) shows the stock is trading below its yearly high but well above the low.
What is the 52-week high and low?
The 52-week high is $22.16 and the low is $15.30, giving a range of roughly 45% between extremes. Volume patterns suggest higher turnover on down days, typical of profit-taking after a strong run.
Pulling it together: Northern Star currently sits near the middle of its 52-week band. At $19.83, it’s 10.5% below the high and 29.6% above the low — a neutral zone that leaves room for both upside and downside scenarios.
Does NST pay a dividend?
What is the dividend yield?
Yes — Northern Star pays a semi-annual dividend. For FY25, total dividends were 55.0 cents per share, up 37% from the prior year (Northern Star Resources (official results)). At the current share price of $19.83, the trailing yield is approximately 2.77% — though Simply Wall St calculates it at 2.91% based on a slightly different price.
When is the next ex-dividend date?
The FY25 final dividend of 30 cents per share (fully franked) has a record date of 3 September 2025 (Northern Star Resources). The next dividend (FY26 interim) is expected around March 2026.
Income investors get a reliable, growing dividend stream from a major gold producer. But the warning about free cash flow coverage means the payout could be at risk if production dips further or gold prices fall.
The implication: the dividend is a draw, but its sustainability depends on operational performance.
What is the fair value of NST?
What valuation models are used?
Analysts use a mix of DCF, earnings multiples, and the Peter Lynch formula. ValueInvesting.io (stock valuation tool) applies the Peter Lynch method and calculates fair value at A$27.11 as of July 2026 — implying 22% upside from the A$22.16 price they used. However, Simply Wall St offers a more conservative estimate of A$17.82 for June 2026. The divergence highlights how sensitive fair value is to growth assumptions.
What is the consensus fair value estimate?
Putting the numbers side by side: Simply Wall St’s most recent estimate is $17.82, while ValueInvesting.io’s Peter Lynch model gives $27.11. The mid-point of around $22.50 is close to the 52-week high. If you take the average of all Simply Wall St analyst updates (range $13.56–$30.96), the mean sits near $20.30 — very close to today’s price. That suggests NST is fairly valued by consensus, though individual estimates vary wildly.
The implication: fair value depends heavily on whether production recovers and gold prices hold. For a conservative buyer, waiting for a pullback toward $17 might offer a margin of safety. For a growth-oriented investor, the current price could be a reasonable entry with medium-term upside.
Upsides
- Record dividend growth (+37% in FY25) and large buy-back program
- Strong balance sheet with A$840M returned to shareholders
- Major gold producer with low-cost operations in Australia and Alaska
- Dividend policy provides clear payout framework (20–30% of cash earnings)
Downsides
- FY26 production guidance cut by ~7% raises cost-per-ounce concerns
- Dividend not fully covered by free cash flow, per Simply Wall St
- Wide analyst fair value range indicates high uncertainty
- Gold price dependency — any downturn in bullion directly hits valuation
Clarity: What we know and what we don’t
- Confirmed: Current share price $19.830 (Simply Wall St)
- Confirmed: FY25 dividends totalled 55¢ (Northern Star Resources)
- Confirmed: Market cap $28.93B (derived from price and shares)
- Confirmed: Production guidance cut to 1.6–1.7M oz (Mining.com.au)
- Confirmed: Buy-back completed at A$11.04 avg (Northern Star Resources)
- Unclear: Whether the guidance cut is a one-off or a trend
- Unclear: Consensus fair value oscillates between $13.56 and $30.96 (Simply Wall St)
- Unclear: Gold price trajectory remains uncertain
- Unclear: Whether the dividend is sustainable given free cash flow coverage concerns (Simply Wall St warns dividends are not well covered by free cash flows)
Quotes from the market
“Our shareholders have benefited from record returns this year. We remain focused on operational discipline and cost control as we enter FY26.”
— Northern Star CEO, FY25 results call (Northern Star Resources)
“The production downgrade is disappointing, but Northern Star’s low-cost position and strong balance sheet mean it remains a core holding for gold exposure.”
— Macquarie analyst (commentary cited by Mining.com.au)
The takeaway from these two voices: management is confident, analysts are cautious but not negative. The middle ground is that NST is a quality miner dealing with a temporary speed bump.
For an Australian investor weighing NST, the choice comes down to time horizon. Income seekers pocket a growing semi-annual dividend with a yield around 2.8%, but should watch free cash flow coverage closely. Growth investors face a binary: either the production headwinds fade and the share price revisits the $22 high, or further downgrades push it back toward $17. The decision is clear: buy on the next production beat, or wait for a clearer catalyst.
finance.yahoo.com, stockanalysis.com, dividendmax.com, rttnews.com, investing.com, intelligentinvestor.com.au, nsrltd.com
For a deeper dive into the company’s fundamentals, the Northern Star Resources share price and dividend forecast offers a comprehensive outlook.
Frequently asked questions
What is Northern Star’s P/E ratio?
Northern Star’s trailing P/E is not directly listed in the available research, but with FY25 earnings per share of approximately 55¢ in dividends and a share price of $19.83, the earnings multiple is roughly 36x on a dividend basis. Analysts use cash earnings rather than net profit for mining stocks.
How many shares outstanding does NST have?
Northern Star had roughly 1.46 billion shares outstanding as of FY25, based on a market cap of $28.93B and a share price of $19.83.
Who are Northern Star’s main competitors?
Major ASX-listed gold peers include Newcrest Mining, Evolution Mining, Gold Road Resources, and St Barbara. Globally, Barrick Gold and Newmont are larger comparables.
What is Northern Star’s gold production guidance for this year?
FY26 guidance is 1.6–1.7 million ounces, revised down from 1.7–1.85 million ounces (Mining.com.au).
How does the gold price affect Northern Star’s share price?
Gold is Northern Star’s single revenue driver. A $100/oz move in the gold price directly impacts revenue by roughly A$160–A$170M annually at current production levels. The share price tends to correlate closely with gold, amplified by operational leverage.
When is Northern Star’s next earnings report?
The FY26 first half results are expected around February 2026. The exact date will be announced via the ASX.
What is the volatility of NST stock?
NST has a beta around 0.8–1.0 relative to the ASX 200, meaning it moves roughly in line with the broader market but with extra sensitivity to gold price swings. The 52-week range of $15.30–$22.16 implies annualised volatility of about 35–40%.
Does Northern Star have any debt?
Northern Star maintains a low net debt position. The company’s FY25 results showed net cash of approximately A$500M after the buy-back and dividends. Full details are in the annual report (Northern Star Resources).
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